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Post by Dutch on Aug 7, 2023 10:47:33 GMT -5
Yellow Freight just went under because their shipping was down 25%. They say one of the first signs of a recession is RV sales. They're down 50% this year. We're also fighting a war with Russia that we can't afford. This is a house of cards Considering the drastic increase in RV sales after Covid I'm not sure it's a big surprise or an indicator of anything that they are down this year. That market is only so big and expanded beyond it's capacity due to extenuating circumstances in 21 and 22. Certainly the cost is a big factor but not the only one. I do think we are headed for a recession, just not sure how bad at this point. Part of me thinks a recession would do some good, at least bring prices down. Correct, everyone that wanted one, bought an RV. Yes, a mild recession would help. Another thing that would also help is expanded immigration. The number of workers in the generations following the Boomers, does not make up for the retirements. It's well documented. We have created a scarcity of labor, which drives up inflation. We have also over stimulated the economy with many years of deficit spending. The feds are starting to scale back,which will take stimulus out.
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Post by moosemike on Aug 7, 2023 10:52:28 GMT -5
My new F-150 was $50K and it's an extended cab. Had I wanted a Quad cab it would've been 60K
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Post by Dutch on Aug 7, 2023 10:52:31 GMT -5
Yellow Freight just went under because their shipping was down 25%. They say one of the first signs of a recession is RV sales. They're down 50% this year. We're also fighting a war with Russia that we can't afford. This is a house of cards Yellow Freight had enormous debt. When things started to get slim, they couldn't afford their debt. Same thing happens to people. They take on debt when things are good, but can't handle it when bad times come. Bankruptcy.
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Post by Dutch on Aug 7, 2023 10:55:33 GMT -5
Where I work, we are a John Deere dealer. On the floor sits a beautiful Gator. Cost is $24,500. Co worker and I were discussing it. I said I didn't pay half that much for the last three used cars I bought. Yep, got out the calculator and that's what it was, half. 😂
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Post by dougl on Aug 7, 2023 11:02:21 GMT -5
I just sold insurance to two different people who paid 40k+ for Polaris SXS's.One of them has already been totaled.I bought a new Yamaha grizzly in 2014 for around 7K.In 2016,I bought a new Honda Rancher for about $6200. think you'd be hard pressed to get one much under $10000 if that.
My spending days are over.I really don't need anything and my kids are essentially on their own.Now I'm just trying to maintain what I have.
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Post by moosemike on Aug 7, 2023 11:49:36 GMT -5
40 Countries already want to get off the US dollar and switch to BRICS gold backed currency which China is is the backer of but they've made Russia the face of. The US dollars days of being the global petrodollar are nearing the end. It's been a nice 50 year run but when it goes it's coming down hard
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Post by dougl on Aug 7, 2023 12:16:30 GMT -5
These are unprescedented times and the future is impossible to predict one way or the other.Because of that,the past is not indicative of the future.I have zero clue about what the future holds
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Post by muttleysback on Aug 7, 2023 12:31:10 GMT -5
Yinz guys talk about spending huge sums for a car or pickup. I still have that 1988 Dodge pickup we paid cash for in 1988; $12,500 if memory serves.
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Post by Dutch on Aug 7, 2023 12:37:09 GMT -5
My new F-150 was $50K and it's an extended cab. Had I wanted a Quad cab it would've been 60K I didn't know they made extend cabs anymore. Thought everything is 4 doors, some a little bigger than others.
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Post by moosemike on Aug 7, 2023 12:39:13 GMT -5
No you can still get extended cabs from Ford and Chevy. A lot of dealers don't like to carry them because they're less expensive
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Post by rusty on Aug 7, 2023 13:31:30 GMT -5
I feel like I've been saying the Economy is soon going to get better for 20 years now. I got my drivers license and the same week I did back in 05 under war happy Bush the gas went up over $3 and it took me a long time to see gas under $3 at least 10 years and I was only making $5.25 at the time. Wouldn't ask my parents for lunch money because I just don't like asking anyone for money so I would pay for my own school lunch. Graduated in 06 went to college for a year and wasted money and gave myself crappy debt that I now realize my advisors gave me the wrong advice. Wasted my money and gave myself debt straight out of school which is stupid for anyone. I had to then get my own insurance policy because then you had to sh*t or get off the pot with school. So called Geisinger and was able to get a policy for $136 a month with a $500 deductible and no out of pocket. My age helped me with that a lot. Then they changed the insurance around to the point I now had to pay a $2,000 deductible with 4,000 out of pocket for just myself. I know what it takes to be successful just so tired of the economy not being where it could be and right now I'm amazed I have work out 2 weeks because money isn't passing around right now and they already over stimulated the economy so God knows how long it will take to climb out if this. They say the economy is doing great though. I watch some of the financial programming nearly every day and very often hear the "experts" make the claim that labor costs need to be brought back under control to help ease the inflation rate. It is rare to hear any of them mention increase margins as a factor. My investments are doing pretty well again and the warning of a deep recession coming our way have pretty much faded-maybe it true that the experts have accurately predicted 15 of the last 7 or 8 recessions. In May 2023, the New York Times reported that economists fear the Federal Reserve "may feel
compelled to keep raising interest rates, or at least lower them" due to the "world's biggest companies"
continuing to increase prices in order to protect "cushioned corporate profits." The average S&P 500
company increased its profit margin from the end of 2022, partially led by the consumer discretionary sector,
while spending a record $922.7 billion on stock buybacks and a record $564.6 billion in dividends.
Some of the largest general consumer S&P 500 companies have admitted to benefiting from increased
prices as their net profits increased year-over-year and they rewarded shareholders with billions in
handouts...AccountableUS 6/1/22
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Post by stroupy on Aug 7, 2023 14:41:14 GMT -5
moosemike; I don't know your income vs expeensives are, don't care. But if you're not putting anyone through school, you don't have an income problem, you have a spending problem, on that amount of income, especially if there's just the two of you. Like Dutch said, Pay yourself first, buy stocks or mutual funds. I've been retired since 2006, wife a couple of years later. Our income is about 75% of yours, and we still are able to reinvest $20000 + or- every year in the stock/ mutual fund market. I started drawing down my IRA 5 years ago, at the minimum rate, it's still worth what it was when I started. Put money in either a Roth or Traditional IRA. Get yourself a good stock broker. stroupy; My son in-law is a HVAC tech, he's working OT most weeks, but then again he's in the State College market, might be the area. If you look back in years you will find income vs expensive haven't changed that much in ratio. Back in the late 1960's when I got out of the service, a new car would cost $3,500 and a house $30,000, if you were making $5,200 a year gross you were doing well. In todays world you just another zero to the end of those numbers. I worked for a HVAC company after I left the manufacturing place they were based out of Maryland they were slow when I left and wanted to continue to raise prices they wanted $800 to clean an oil boiler I said they were nuts even in the Hershey market. Some of its greed but every contractor in my area I talk to says some weeks it's really good some weeks the phone isn't ringing. Im Actually the cheaper guy in the area some are charging 95 an hour I'm charging 55
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Post by stroupy on Aug 7, 2023 14:43:01 GMT -5
I feel like I've been saying the Economy is soon going to get better for 20 years now. I got my drivers license and the same week I did back in 05 under war happy Bush the gas went up over $3 and it took me a long time to see gas under $3 at least 10 years and I was only making $5.25 at the time. Wouldn't ask my parents for lunch money because I just don't like asking anyone for money so I would pay for my own school lunch. Graduated in 06 went to college for a year and wasted money and gave myself crappy debt that I now realize my advisors gave me the wrong advice. Wasted my money and gave myself debt straight out of school which is stupid for anyone. I had to then get my own insurance policy because then you had to sh*t or get off the pot with school. So called Geisinger and was able to get a policy for $136 a month with a $500 deductible and no out of pocket. My age helped me with that a lot. Then they changed the insurance around to the point I now had to pay a $2,000 deductible with 4,000 out of pocket for just myself. I know what it takes to be successful just so tired of the economy not being where it could be and right now I'm amazed I have work out 2 weeks because money isn't passing around right now and they already over stimulated the economy so God knows how long it will take to climb out if this. They say the economy is doing great though. I watch some of the financial programming nearly every day and very often hear the "experts" make the claim that labor costs need to be brought back under control to help ease the inflation rate. It is rare to hear any of them mention increase margins as a factor. My investments are doing pretty well again and the warning of a deep recession coming our way have pretty much faded-maybe it true that the experts have accurately predicted 15 of the last 7 or 8 recessions. In May 2023, the New York Times reported that economists fear the Federal Reserve "may feel
compelled to keep raising interest rates, or at least lower them" due to the "world's biggest companies"
continuing to increase prices in order to protect "cushioned corporate profits." The average S&P 500
company increased its profit margin from the end of 2022, partially led by the consumer discretionary sector,
while spending a record $922.7 billion on stock buybacks and a record $564.6 billion in dividends.
Some of the largest general consumer S&P 500 companies have admitted to benefiting from increased
prices as their net profits increased year-over-year and they rewarded shareholders with billions in
handouts...AccountableUS 6/1/22 Oh greed plays a major part too, the middle guy gets it from both ends.
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Post by stroupy on Aug 7, 2023 14:45:40 GMT -5
Yinz guys talk about spending huge sums for a car or pickup. I still have that 1988 Dodge pickup we paid cash for in 1988; $12,500 if memory serves. View AttachmentI'm the same way but the rust gets everyone of my vehicles not sure how you kept that truck all these years it's the same age as me.
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Post by muttleysback on Aug 7, 2023 15:06:31 GMT -5
I'm taking it to camp this weekend to haul a load of firewood home.
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Post by CoureurDeBois on Aug 7, 2023 15:41:02 GMT -5
Yinz guys talk about spending huge sums for a car or pickup. I still have that 1988 Dodge pickup we paid cash for in 1988; $12,500 if memory serves. View AttachmentI'm still driving my 2005 Toyota Tundra access cab. Don't really remember what I paid for it new, guessing low mid 20"s. Only has 140,000 miles on it, engine is good, needs a tune up, no rust, and does everything I want it to do and I like it, think I'll keep it. Oh the tire pressure main box or secondary box is shot so dash light warning low light is on all the time. I put a black piece of electrical tape over it, problem solved.😁 Figured I drove 50 years without one a few more isn't going to change anything, and I still know how/can change a flat tire.
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Post by dougl on Aug 7, 2023 15:55:32 GMT -5
I've never been into nice vehicles.I always used my trucks and it showed.I bought a new 2500 Ram in 2016 that my wife guilted me into buying.She claimed that my kids were embarrased of my current truck.The tranny went twice in that truck right after the warranty ended so I traded it for a 1/2 ton and my son drives that.I'm driving a 2014 keep willys with 150k miles on it.Manual tranny,manual locks and windows.It does have a radio and air conditioning though.If I can get three more years out of it,I'll be happy.
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Post by moosemike on Aug 7, 2023 16:21:49 GMT -5
I imagine that you fellows that have had the same trucks for decades don't put 25,000 miles a year on them
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Post by muttleysback on Aug 8, 2023 6:34:49 GMT -5
What was interesting to me when I visited the local Dodge dealer last week was that used vehicles that had "Certified Pre-owned" vehicles with fairly low mileage that were selling at much lower prices than new ones. And those certified vehicles carried a longer warranty than new ones. I think I have bought my last new vehicle.
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Post by muttleysback on Aug 8, 2023 6:40:21 GMT -5
I imagine that you fellows that have had the same trucks for decades don't put 25,000 miles a year on them I used to drive that much and mort per year, then I retired. I did it all those years mostly with used cars. Never financed a vehicle, and still haven't. Followed my father in law's advice. If I couldn't pay cash for it I didn't need it. My best buy ever was a 3 year old 1985 Mercury Grand Marquis that I paid $7,000 for. We put well over 150,000 miles on it before it went to the junkyard. Well maybe the 1965 dodge dart I paid $695 for?
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Post by dougl on Aug 8, 2023 8:19:40 GMT -5
I imagine that you fellows that have had the same trucks for decades don't put 25,000 miles a year on them When my kids were younger,my wife and I each put 25k+ on our vehicles.Now I'll be lucky to put 7K a year on mine.
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Post by moosemike on Aug 8, 2023 10:02:21 GMT -5
Because of Sullivan County I put 25K a year on my odometer. And since I want to do the 240 mile round trip without any breakdowns that means truck payments
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Post by ridgecommander on Aug 8, 2023 10:18:59 GMT -5
So what do you all think about ARs for seniors?
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Post by Dutch on Aug 8, 2023 10:36:18 GMT -5
So what do you all think about ARs for seniors? No reduction for older hunters.
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Post by ridgecommander on Aug 8, 2023 11:03:49 GMT -5
Faloney needs another job...........
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